Plan your most profitable peak.
Q4 is a third of the year in ten weeks. Forecast peak demand at the SKU level, buy enough of the right lines without drowning January in overstock, and time reorders to your real lead times.
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How much cash is trapped in your inventory?
Two numbers you already know. The estimate defaults to a conservative band, so most Tightly customers free more than this.
Estimated at 15% of revenue for other consumer brand — type your real figure to override.
Frees 10% of your inventory — a deliberately cautious floor.
Estimate only, for illustration. The one-time figure frees a conservative share of your inventory value; the annual figure is the all-in cost of holding that stock (we assume 22%/yr, covering cost of capital, storage, insurance and shrink) that you stop paying. The conservative band sits below the Tightly platform average — we’ll model the real numbers on your own categories.
From the operators at
working capital reduction, on average
in-stock service level, sustained
would recommend Tightly to a peer
How peak goes sideways.
- 01ThenLast year's total scaled by a growth % — no read on which lines will run hot.Peak demand forecast at SKU and channel level, off real sell-through.
- 02ThenBest-sellers sell out mid-November; the reorder misses the lead-time window.Reorders timed to your actual lead times, flagged before you run out.
- 03ThenOver-bought lines become January markdowns and trapped cash.Depth sized to demand, so January starts clean instead of on markdown.
- 04ThenMarketing drives demand the plan never saw coming.Promo and drop calendar folded into the forecast, not bolted on after.
A peak plan built on demand, not last year plus a guess.
Forecast the spike.
Peak demand modelled at the SKU, size and channel level from real history and seasonality — not a blanket growth multiplier.
Buy enough, not too much.
Depth sized to the demand you'll see, so hero lines stay in stock and the tail doesn't become January markdown.
Reorder in the window.
The model watches cover-weeks against your real lead times and flags the reorder while there's still time to place it.
Start January clean.
Less residual to mark down means cash comes out of peak instead of being trapped in it.
Your agents watch peak while your team runs it.
Through November the model tracks cover-weeks, sell-through and lead times across your hero lines, and stages the reorder before a best-seller runs dry.
Everyday Tee · Black · M is down to 3.1 weeks of cover and running hot. Fastest lead time gets you back in stock by Nov 22 — place 1,400 units now?
Last peak we sold out of our best gift set in week two and couldn't get it back in time. This year the model flagged the reorder with three weeks to spare.
What changes before this peak.
A real peak forecast
SKU and channel-level demand for the spike, off your own history and seasonality — not last year times a growth number.
Hero lines stay in stock
The lines that carry peak are protected, in the right size and channel, through the whole run.
Reorders that land in time
Cover-weeks watched against your real lead times, so the reorder gets placed while it can still arrive.
A cleaner January
Buy the right depth and less becomes markdown. Cash comes out of peak instead of sitting in the stockroom.
Peak planning, answered.
When should we start planning for peak?
Most brands lock the bulk of the peak buy by early-to-mid October, which means the forecasting and OTB work needs to happen across late summer and early fall. Reorders on hero lines then run through November against lead times. The earlier the forecast is right, the more of the buy you can place with confidence.
How does Tightly forecast peak demand?
Tightly forecasts at the SKU, size and channel level off your real sell-through history and seasonality, and folds in your promo and drop calendar. It's a bottom-up read of the spike, not last year's total scaled by a growth percentage.
Can it help with reorders during peak?
Yes. Through the peak run, the agents watch cover-weeks against your real lead times and flag reorders on hero lines while there's still time to place them and have them arrive.
How does this reduce January overstock?
By sizing depth to demand rather than buying a flat uplift, less of the buy is left over after peak. Less residual means fewer forced markdowns and more cash out of the season.
Peak is won in the planning, not the sale. Bring one category. See your peak plan.
Give us 30 minutes on a category that matters at peak. We'll run it through the model and show the buy, the reorders and the January position on your real numbers.